Futures Rise For 8th Day In A Row, Hit All Time High Ahead Of CPI, Powell

Futures Rise For 8th Day In A Row, Hit All Time High Ahead Of CPI, Powell

Futures Rise For 8th Day In A Row, Hit All Time High Ahead Of CPI, Powell

Futures Rise For 8th Day In A Row, Hit All Time High Ahead Of CPI, Powell

Global shares continued their euphoric ways, rising for the eighth day in a row, reaching record highs as market sentiment was improved by the prospect of U.S. fiscal stimulus and vaccine rollouts. U.S. stock futures also rose to new all time highs, hitting 3,924 before paring some gains, suggesting a resumption of gains after a one-day break as earnings and optimism over improving virus trends helped support sentiment while investors looked to inflation data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for clues on the pace of an economic rebound.

Tilray Inc. led gains in the premarket session, climbing 31% in an extension of Tuesday’s 41% surge after the company signed a deal to distribute medical cannabis products in the U.K. Eli Lilly and Co became the latest drugmaker to receive an emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its combination antibody therapy to fight COVID-19. Its shares rose 2.1% in premarket trading. The reflation trade continued to be the main investment theme.

Closely watched CPI Data at 8:30 a.m. ET is expected to show U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in January following a 0.4% increase in December. But that is unlikely to have an impact on the Fed, which has signaled it would tolerate higher prices “for some time” as the economy climbs out of a coronavirus-driven recession. Powell will be speaking about the state of the U.S. labor market in a webinar at 2 p.m. ET.

Buoyed by hopes for a bigger Biden stimulus even as the Fed remains on hold for years, the MSCI world equity index was up 0.3% in morning trading, having touched new peaks earlier in the session.

European indexes strengthened after a shaky start, with the STOXX 600 up 0.2% and London’s FTSE 100 up 0.4%. Miners, banks and insurance names trade well, oil & gas, household & personal goods and real estate provide a drag. The Stoxx Europe 600 Energy index fell as much as 0.9%, declining more than any other sector in Europe, as oil trades steady after the longest run of gains in two years and Equinor drops following an unexpected 4Q loss. Equinor fell 2.1% after posting an adjusted net loss of about $550 million in 4Q, missing the average analyst estimate for a profit of $504 million. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Adyen shares surge as much as 12% to a record after results that beat analyst expectations, with brokers highlighting that the payments firm raised its long-term margin guidance to above 65%.
  • Natixis shares jump as much as 7.7% to their highest in almost a year after BPCE offered to buy out minority shareholders in the company’s listed investment-banking unit.
  • Genfit climbs as much as 49%, the most since Sept. 28, after previously disclosed data was published in the Journal of Hepatology late Tuesday.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources Index (SXPP) rises as much as 1.7% as copper nears longest rally on record, while steelmakers get a boost from Thyssenkrupp’s earnings.
  • Heineken shares fall as much as 3%, their steepest decline in more than 7 weeks, after the Dutch brewer reported 4Q results that missed estimates and gave an outlook for 2023 that several analysts said was disappointing.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s ex-Japan Asian shares index also broke above its previous high in January as Asian stocks rose for a fourth day, with the benchmark gauge up 0.7% extending gains after reaching yet another record high on Tuesday, although volumes dwindled ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. The Hang Seng Index rallied 1.9%, with Tencent Holdings among the biggest boosts, after the company won Chinese regulators’ approval to roll out a blockbuster game. Equity benchmarks in China also jumped. China’s CSI 300 Index saw gains accelerate in Wednesday afternoon trade, rising as much as 2.3% to approach an all-time closing high. The index trades at 5,817.17 points as of 2:33 p.m. in Shanghai, that took it to about 1% from a record closing high of 5,877.20 set in October 2007.

Consumer discretionary and communication services were the best-performing sectors on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which climbed 0.7%. In Japan, automakers jumped on signs of an improving outlook. Honda Motor rallied 5.1% after boosting its operating profit target for the current fiscal year on Tuesday, while Nissan rose 3.7% after the company trimmed its loss forecast for the fiscal year. Toyota Motor gained 1.7% after raising its profit outlook by more than 50%. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index advanced for a fifth day, its longest winning run since November, amid optimism the nation may resume a gradual reopening in its capital next month if virus cases continue to stabilize. Equities also rose in Malaysia as the country eased movement restrictions after a month-long lockdown.

China’s consumer price index fell more than expected, but factory prices posted their first year-on-year rise in 12 months, suggesting gathering momentum in the industrial sector.

Recent stock gains stem from a combination of the market pricing in increased U.S. fiscal stimulus, as well as some relief that the retail trading frenzy in certain stocks appears to be over in the short-term, said Kiran Ganesh, multi-asset strategist at UBS.

“The prospects for fiscal stimulus in the U.S. seem to be getting revised upward … Now, Biden is talking about $1.9 trillion,” he said — around 9% of U.S. GDP. UBS expects that after negotiations with Republicans the stimulus will come to around $1.5 trillion. “There’s still plenty of excitement to get priced in around the stimulus,” he said. “The path of least resistance still seems to be upward at this stage.”

In rates, Treasuries were slightly cheaper across long-end of the curve ahead of 10-year new issue auction during U.S afternoon. Yields were cheaper by ~1bp across 10- to 30-year part of the curve, with gilts underperforming by ~1bp and S&P 500 futures up 0.3% at record highs. Following muted Asia session ahead of Thursday’s Japan holiday, gilts sagged in London trading into a 20-year auction. Refunding resumes with $41b 10-year auction at 1pm ET, follows Tuesday’s solid 3-year note sale; cycle concludes with $27b 30-year Thursday. In Europe, the benchmark 10-year German Bund yield was steady at -0.442%. Italian borrowing costs hit a one-month low on Tuesday as Mario Draghi made progress in his attempt to form a government.

In FX, the dollar was little changed as trading in Group-of-10 currencies was muted, with investors gearing up for the Lunar New Year holiday, which starts Thursday in some parts of Asia. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erased an earlier decline to read little changed, while the New Zealand dollar underperformed.The euro was little changed at $1.2123, having reached its highest in nine days. Sweden’s central bank said the severity of the current crisis means it will take years before inflation is even close to its target, requiring continued “extensive” monetary support. EUR/SEK traded down at 10.0674, after hitting a session low of 10.0413 shortly before the decision amid foreign selling of the pair. JPY drops after local press speculation about the BOJ’s March policy review.

In commodities, oil prices extended their rally for the ninth consecutive day — the longest winning streak in two years — supported by producer supply cuts and expectations that vaccine rollouts will drive a recovery in demand. But Eric Vanraes, a portfolio manager at Eric Sturdza Investments, said bond and equity markets were too optimistic. Crude futures popped through Tuesday’s highs. WTI rises 0.5% near $58.75, Brent trades highs of $61.59 so far. Spot platinum outperforms other precious metals, rallying over 3.5%. Spot gold holds around the middle of Tuesday’s range near $1,842/oz, silver little changed. Base metals are well bid with the exception of LME tin; copper leads.

“There is a lot of optimism in markets about the end of the crisis. But nobody knows when that will be — we don’t want this scenario to take place but cannot totally exclude that later this year we could still be with this pandemic with the same problems of lockdowns,” he said.

Elsewhere, bitcoin was trading around $46,575 and Ethereum hit record highs.

Looking ahead, CPI data is due later in the session. Also in focus in a webinar in which the Fed’s Powell will speak about the state of the U.S. labour market at 1900 GMT.

“Markets will probably be looking out for any comments around inflation because that is something that is likely to rise quite substantially in the near term at least, because of year-over-year comparisons,” said UBS’s Ganesh. “Markets are going to be looking for reassurance that the Fed is not going to jump or overreact to a temporary period of higher inflation.”

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,919.25
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 217.70
  • MXAPJ up 0.9% to 730.84
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 29,562.93
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,930.82
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.9% to 30,038.72
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3,655.09
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 51,235.30
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,856.90
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 3,100.58
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.443%
  • Euro little changed at $1.2121
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $61.37/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $61.38/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,843.41
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 90.39

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • One dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine offers two- thirds protection against coronavirus, data seen by the U.K. government suggests
  • The reflation trade has reached Japan. Global funds are driving yen interest-rate swaps to the highest level in almost two years as they position for a pick-up in the world economy. Long-end sovereign bond yields are also rising, albeit by a lesser degree
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand Gov. Orr said to nation’s parliament’s finance and expenditure select committee that New Zealand economy is recovering but many risks “are still with us.” Adds he is concerned about the risk of sharp correction in the housing market and the harm this could do
  • The Bank of Japan’s current framework is working but adjustments to make policy more sustainable may be desirable, board member Toyoaki Nakamura says in a speech ahead of a March policy review
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants a gradual reopening of stores and hotels next month, as long as the infection rate continues to fall and reaches manageable levels
  • The Bank of Italy’s Daniele Franco is emerging as a possible candidate to take over as the country’s next finance minister, as the race intensifies over who will be premier-designate Mario Draghi’s pick to start reviving the staggering economy
  • Oil was steady after the longest run of gains in two years as an industry report pointed to another decline in U.S. crude stockpiles
  • One dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine offers two-thirds protection against coronavirus, data seen by the U.K. government suggests. The data is due to be released within days. Eli Lilly & Co.’s combination antibody drug for Covid-19 was cleared for emergency use by U.S. regulators
  • Global funds are driving yen interest-rate swaps to the highest level in almost two years as they position for a pick-up in the world economy. Long-end sovereign bond yields are also rising, albeit by a lesser degree

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewSquawk

Asian equity indices mostly traded with cautious gains as participants digested a heavy slate of corporate earnings, with the region kept tentative amid a lack of fresh macro drivers and heading into the mass holiday closures beginning tomorrow. ASX 200 (+0.5%) was led higher by outperformance in tech and with an improvement in Westpac Consumer Sentiment data adding to the constructive mood, although upside was capped by earnings with financials lacklustre after a decline in earnings from Australia’s largest lender CBA and with multi-national contractor CIMIC plunging despite returning to the black for the year, as it also reported lower revenues and that two executives were jailed in Qatar. Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) remained indecisive throughout the session due to a mixed currency and with newsflow dominated by earnings including automakers Toyota, Nissan and Honda which were boosted despite printing weaker 9-month results, as they all upgraded their FY guidance, while Japan Tobacco was heavily pressured due to a fall in profits and with the Co. planning job reductions. Hang Seng (+1.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.4%) were positive following stronger than expected Chinese loans and aggregate financing data, but with the advances mainland initially limited after another PBoC liquidity drain in the last operation before the Lunar New Year holidays and following mixed Chinese inflation figures in which both CPI and PPI missed estimates although still showed the first increase to producer prices in 1 year. Finally, 10yr JGBs consolidated around the 151.50 level with prices attempting to plug the recent losses and avoid an extension to the current losing streak which matched the 2003 record of 10 consecutive declines yesterday. Nonetheless, JGBs lacked firm direction amid the indecisive risk tone in Tokyo and with stronger demand in the enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated government bonds failing to spur prices.

Top Asian News

  • Up to a Million People Fleeing Hong Kong Might Suit China Fine
  • Hong Kong to Reopen Venues, Relax Distancing Rules as Cases Drop
  • Chinese Courier SF to Take Over Kerry Logistics for $2.3 Billion
  • Pimco Sees Risk in Premature Calls on Pandemic and Inflation

European equities trade mixed (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%) as the broader gains seen at the open somewhat tempered down amid a lack of fresh catalysts and as the region tackles with a myriad of large-cap earnings. US equity futures meanwhile see modest gains across the four contract – ES (+0.4%), NQ (+0.5%), YM (+0.4%) and RTY (+0.5%) ahead of US CPI and a busy central bank slate with Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and BoE’s Bailey part of the line-up. Meanwhile, the overall narrative remains little changed as earnings take focus in the absence of fresh impetus. Sectors are also mixed in early trade with no real risk profile portrayed. Energy lags its peers despite elevated oil prices, likely on the back of Equinor (-0.2%) whose earnings included a surprise Q4 adj. net loss following net impairments of USD 1.30bln and a write down of USD 0.98bln related to the Tanzania LNG project. On the flipside, Materials top the charts as base metals continue to grind higher on reflationary hopes coupled with a softer Dollar – with the likes of Glenore (+3%) Anglo American (+2.3%), Rio Tinto (+2.2%), and BHP (+1.7%) all deriving impetus from copper prices to keep the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) afloat. Meanwhile, the banking sector is propped up after SocGen (+3.0%) topped net income estimates and announced the payment of a cash dividend and a potential Q4 share buyback programme in accordance with the ECB’s guidance. Interestingly, the group noted that “Fixed Income & Currency activities were hit by a slowdown in client activity, in rate activities and the compression of short-term financing spreads in financing activities” – highlighting somewhat of a dichotomy vs its US peers. ABN AMRO (-3%) bucks the banking trend post-earnings after the group proposed no dividend for 2020 and foresees the COVID-19 impact persisting into 2021. In terms of individual movers, Maersk (-6%) resides at the foot of the Stoxx 600 as FY20 EBITDA missed forecasts and the group sees the current surge in demand as temporary and likely to normalise over the course of the year. Other earnings-related movers include Heineken (-2.3%), Ubisoft (-6%), Smurfit Kappa (+2.7%). Finally, ThyssenKrupp (+6%) is firmer after upgrading its 2021/21 outlook amid improved demand for material and automotive components.

Top European News

  • EU Fights to Restore Faith in Leaders After Several Blunders
  • Draghi Keeps Italy Guessing on Which Super Mario Will Emerge
  • BioNTech Starts Production at New Covid Vaccine Plant in Germany
  • Merkel Proposes Gradual Easing If Covid Infections Fall Further

In FX, it was almost a perfect 10 for the Swedish Krona that had extended gains vs the Euro through 10.0500 into the Riksbank, but then slipped back as the repo rate, QE and guidance all remained unchanged with only minor or subtle tweaks to the language and distribution of asset purchases for Q2. However, the Board does not expect the Sek to extend on 2020 gains and assumes the dampening effect of its appreciation on inflation will diminish as a result, and the cross is now hovering around 10.0600. For more details of the official Riksbank statements, our analysis and market reaction see the Newsquawk headline feed at 8.30GMT. Conversely, the Norwegian Crown remains elevated between 10.2510-2070 parameters against the single currency following much firmer than forecast inflation data, and especially y/y headline CPI that surged to 2.5% from 1.4% and vs expectations of 1.7% to keep the Norges Bank on a path, albeit lengthy, towards a degree of policy normalisation.

  • USD – The Dollar has descended into another lower range in DXY terms, but paring declines within a 90.528-249 band thanks to a loss of bullish momentum in certain counterparts and a reversion to bear-steepening along the US Treasury curve in wake of a strong 3 year note auction and the remaining 2 longer-dated tranches of the Quarterly Refunding. Prior to all that, the Buck may derive some direction from CPI data and after today’s 10 year supply the stage will be clear for Fed chair Powell’s virtual appearance at the Economic Club of New York where he will get chance to assess developments since January’s FOMC.
  • NZD/JPY/AUD/CAD – Kiwi weakness and underperformance look more cross flow related than due to anything NZ specific as Aud/Nzd rebounds further from recent lows to 1.0700+ in wake of an improvement in Westpac consumer sentiment and firm midpoint fix for the CNY by the PBoC. Indeed, the Aussie appears more resilient above 0.7700 vs its US peer than its Antipodean neighbour on the 0.7200 handle, as Usd/CNH probes 6.4200 irrespective the aforementioned broader Greenback bounce. Meanwhile, the Yen has retreated from a brief pop over half round number resistance at 104.50 on the back of a dovish BoJ article in Jiji suggesting that March’s policy review may be used to clarify that there is more room delve deeper below par in rates, but the Loonie is holding around 1.2700 with assistance via a rebound in crude prices before BoC’s Lane orates.
  • GBP/CHF/EUR – All managing to resist the brunt of the mini Dollar revival, as the Pound retains firm grip of the 1.3800 level, Franc hovers closer to 0.8900 than 0.8935 and Euro maintains 1.2100+ status despite fading into 1.2150 and reversing in sympathy with the Yen following comments from ECB’s de Cos underlining a willingness to adjust all instruments as needed and echoing that amply monetary stimulus is still required. Expect more of the same from President Lagarde and GC member Panetta, plus BoE Governor Bailey on behalf of the MPC.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures continue on their upward trajectory in early European trade as the complex tracks the softer Dollar and the overall sentiment across the market whilst remaining underpinned by vaccine hopes, reflation and OPEC support. Prices also see underlying support from another surprise draw in Private Inventories (-3.5mln bbl vs exp +1mln bbl), as markets look ahead to the DoE numbers after the US CPI figures, with headline crude expected to show a build of 0.985mln bbls. From a demand perspective, yesterday saw the EIA reduce its 2021 world demand growth forecast by 180k BPD, but raised the 2022 metric by 190k – ahead of the IEA and OPEC reports both released tomorrow. Elsewhere, analysts at ING suggests that this week has seen some weakness in the physical market, particularly in the North Sea. “A number of physical cargoes have been on offer in the North Sea market, which has weighed on differentials”, the bank says, “This is in contrast to the tightness that had been seen in this market just earlier this month.” WTI now meanders around USD 58.50/bbl (vs low 58.13/bbl) whilst its Brent counterpart gains further above USD 61/bbl (vs low USD 60.90/bbl) to a current high of USD 61.57/bbl. Turning to metals, spot gold and silver trade on the front foot on account of the softer USD in the run-up to US CPI, with the former around USD 1840/oz ahead of yesterday’s USD 1848/oz high, whilst spot silver retains is USD 27/oz-status. Platinum prices meanwhile rose some 2.5% as it extended its gains above USD 1200/oz to the highest since 2015 of tighter supply forecasts. In terms of base metals, LME copper prices hit levels last seen eight years ago while Shanghai copper notched a nine-year peak amid the broader sentiment and US stimulus hopes. Similarly, Dalian iron ore futures hit a three-week high with additional support from an improved demand in the base metal for after the Lunar New Year holiday.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Jan. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.6%; MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%, revised 0%
  • 8:30am: Jan. CPI YoY, est. 1.5%, prior 1.4%; MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%, revised 0.2%
  • 10am: Dec. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 0.2%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
  • 2pm: Jan. Monthly Budget Statement, est. – $150b, prior -$32.6b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets paused for breath yesterday following the major risk rally at the start of the week, as investors continued to focus on whether the proposed US stimulus package risked being too big, and questions were also being asked as to how long the pandemic restrictions would last for. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 had fallen -0.11%, snapping a run of 6 successive gains and bringing an end to the longest winning run since August. In terms of the sector moves, tech stocks saw a slight outperformance, with the NASDAQ eking out a +0.14% gain to reach a fresh all-time high. Energy stocks lagged even as the massive rally in oil prices over the last week continued. Brent Crude rose +0.88% to stretch out its winning streak to 8 sessions while WTI (+0.67%) rose for a 7th straight day itself. For context Crude and WTI are up +17.93% and +20.28% YTD.

Overnight in Asia markets are back to their winning ways though with the Hang Seng (+1.74%), Shanghai Comp (+1.03%), Kospi (+0.61%) and Asx (+0.52%) all up. Japanese markets are mixed for second day in a row with the Topix up +0.36% while the Nikkei is -0.01% as we type after erasing deeper losses at the open. Japanese markets are likely weighed down by the news that the government is planning to keep the state of emergency in the 10 prefectures despite earlier reports that it was considering lifting it in some areas on Friday. Futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.36%. In terms of earnings, Twitter rose +3.46% in extended trading after sales topped estimates. Cisco fell -5.4% post market as it reported a big decline in enterprise sales. In terms of overnight data releases, China’s January CPI came in at -0.3% yoy (vs 0% expected) while PPI printed in line with expectations at +0.3% yoy.

Also overnight we’ve heard more news on how effective vaccines are in the real world as Bloomberg reported that early findings from the UK’s immunisation drive shows that one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine reduced the symptomatic infection risk among patients by 65% in younger adults and 64% in over-80s. In addition, The Sun Newspaper cited the same study to suggest that 2 doses of the Pfizer vaccine saw protection rise to between 79% and 84%, depending on age and added that the AstraZeneca vaccine offers similar protection. Good news but it should be noted that the effectiveness of Pfizer’s/ BioNTech vaccine on these results is a bit less than that in the clinical trials but nonetheless these results will make a huge impact if confirmed and sustained. These early findings from the UK immunisation program are likely to be released publically in next few days.

Back to markets and yields have been a bit more subdued over the last 24 hours than of late with 10yr US Treasuries falling -1.4bps to 1.157%, which brought a run of 8 successive moves higher to an end. This was the longest run since September 2019. There was also a noticeable flattening in the yield curve, with the 2s10s curve down -2.0bps in its largest decline in over two weeks. There was a similar pattern in Europe, where core yields fell as those on 10yr bunds (-0.1bps) and gilts (-1.2bps) dipped slightly. Meanwhile, OATs (+0.1bps), BTPs (+0.5bps) and Greek bonds (+1.1bps) all saw modest moves higher. That said, at one point in trading, yields on 10yr Italian debt fell beneath the 0.5% mark for the first time ever, which is a world away from the spike in Italian yields we saw when the pandemic first began.

Even with the breather in risk assets yesterday the dollar fell back for a 3rd day running, dropping -0.54% and is now negative on a month-to-date basis. The drop in the dollar came as Congressional Democrats continued efforts to quickly enact the Biden Administration’s stimulus package. In the clearest signal so far that Democrats are ready to vote on a party-line basis, the White House Press Secretary said yesterday “I don’t think the American people are particularly worried about how the direct relief gets into their hands….The most likely path at this point is through a reconciliation process.” The question still remains how quickly the various parts of the bill will get through the House and Senate. We got an indication of that yesterday though as the Democratic Chair of the Senate Finance committee vowed to complete the bill by early March, while Speaker Pelosi said the House is aiming to vote on the full bill during the week of February 22.

In terms of the latest on the coronavirus, DB’s Robin Winkler published an excellent piece yesterday that summarised the current state of play on the vaccine front (link here). The piece makes for a refreshingly optimistic read, since Robin thinks that the market is still underestimating how positive the outlook is, at least for the advanced economies, and is confident that those countries will have vaccinated the most vulnerable 20-25% by April, with run-rates ramping up in the coming weeks as manufacturing capacity expands and new vaccines are added to the pipeline. Furthermore on the plus side, there’s no indication yet that protection against severe illness is compromised by the new variants, and that’s the key indicator when it comes to fatalities and hospitalisations that have overwhelmed health service capacity. And there are positive indicators that the political and scientific consensus is shifting towards reopening the economy once those most at risk are protected, rather than waiting for herd immunity.

On the news developments, there were further signs that the UK lockdown was having its intended effect, with the number of daily cases reported yesterday (12,364) at its lowest level in more than 2 months. The vaccine rollout continues apace here, and the government’s target is that by this coming Monday, a first dose of the vaccine will have been offered to the most at-risk groups, including the over-70s and the clinically extremely vulnerable, who together make up 88% of the fatalities. In turn, the vaccination of those groups raises the prospect of an easing of restrictions as Robin’s piece outlined, since you can hopefully make a big impact on the death and hospitalisation statistics by focusing on those most at risk. The overnight news mentioned above hopefully shows the data going in the right direction. However we will see if the “eliminate covid” argument aggressively resurfaces as plans to reopen build from next week onwards in the U.K.. The news on mutations could heavily influence this.

Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that in a meeting with state premiers today, Chancellor Merkel would propose that the current restrictions remain in place until early March, which includes school closures. Meanwhile in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that over 97% of the coronavirus deaths in the last 30 days hadn’t been vaccinated. In the US, New York City officials said the most populous city in the country has now surpassed 1 million vaccine doses administered and supply should be increasing soon. The US government informed state Governors that vaccine allocations should increase by 5% for the next three weeks, but that the significant boost in supply will come from the Johnson&Johnson vaccine, which is being produced now.

Looking at yesterday’s data, the number of job openings in the US rose to 6.646m in December (vs. 6.4m expected), which sent the ratio of the unemployed to job openings to its lowest level since the pandemic began. Furthermore, the quits rate, which is the share of those who voluntarily left their job, rose to 2.3%, which is back where it was in February 2020.

To the day ahead now, and highlights include the US CPI reading for January and the monthly budget statement, as well as French industrial production for December. Central bank speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos and Panetta. Meanwhile earnings releases include General Motors, Uber and Coca-Cola.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/10/2021 – 07:58
Futures Rise For 8th Day In A Row, Hit All Time High Ahead Of CPI, Powell